The most popular Yinzhongli purchase restriction i

2022-07-23
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Yinzhongli: purchase restriction means that the bottom line of the regulation policy cannot be broken through

Yinzhongli: purchase restriction means that the bottom line of the regulation policy cannot be broken through

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: Yinzhongli (a financial expert of the Academy of Social Sciences) showed that the economy of the program country in the oscillation test was declining in the first five months of this year. The reason for the economic slowdown was related to the economic depression in Europe and the United States, but it was more related to the slowdown of domestic real estate investment. From the industry point of view, steel, engineering machinery, cement building materials and other heavy industries take the lead

Yinzhongli (financial expert of the Academy of Social Sciences)

the economic data in the first five months of this year show that China's economy is declining. The reason for the economic slowdown is related to the recession in Europe and the United States, but it is more related to the slowdown in domestic real estate investment. In terms of industry, heavy industries such as iron and steel, engineering machinery, cement and building materials took the lead in declining. The inflection point occurred in the third quarter of last year, which was basically the same time point as the deceleration of real estate investment. The obvious slowdown in light industry in the last two months should be caused by economic transmission

from the perspective of economic logic, the slowdown of real estate sales will lead to the growth of new housing construction area and the decline of land transfer income. The decline of new housing construction area will directly affect the sales of engineering machinery and steel, while the decrease of land transfer income will result in the decline of local government investment in infrastructure, further affecting the sales of heavy industrial products such as steel and engineering machinery

from the above brief analysis, it can be seen that the real estate regulation that began in 2010 has had a tightening effect on the current Chinese economy. Therefore, many people believe that to achieve the goal of "steady growth", we should relax the regulation of real estate. More and more "fine-tuning" of local real estate regulation has been reported in the newspapers. The endorsement of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development on Yangzhou's incentive purchase policy has encouraged governments at all levels, and local governments have followed up. Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently issued a document that clearly stated that it would introduce measures such as preferential interest rates, reducing the down payment ratio of the first set of housing, and reducing relevant taxes and fees to support residents to buy the first set of ordinary housing

the central government, which has always emphasized "unswervingly adhering to the real estate regulation policy", seems to have softened its tone. The latest policy on real estate is expressed as "stabilizing and strictly implementing the real estate market regulation policy", which is different from the previous statements such as "returning the house price to a reasonable price". A series of changes in tone of voice have made the market suspect that if the existing "steady growth" measures can not stop the downward trend of China's economy, the central government will be forced to give up its cards for loosening the real estate

in the face of "fine-tuning" of these policies, the market has also begun to show significant changes. Developers are reducing the number of buildings for price reduction and promotion, the land transaction premium rate is rapidly increasing, and the market turnover is rapidly expanding. In May, the housing transaction volume in Beijing has reached a new high since 2010. Behind these changes is the fear of the vast number of prospective home buyers, who fear that house prices will return to the crazy rising track

the reactivation of the real estate market seems to be conducive to "steady growth", but the author believes that we need to correctly evaluate the costs and benefits of changes in real estate regulation policies. The income from relaxing the real estate regulation is to alleviate the overcapacity in some industries, which is conducive to the realization of the goal of "stable growth" of Jinan trial steel strand bending machine technology; However, its cost is detrimental to the decision-making authority of the central government and increases the policy cost of future real estate regulation

after years of real estate policy game, all stakeholders in the market have formed a consistent policy expectation: when the economic growth slows down, the real estate regulation policy will be relaxed. Under this expectation, the authority of the central real estate regulation and control policy will be seriously challenged. In 2010, the central government issued three rounds of real estate regulation and control policy, but it has basically no impact on the real estate market, because developers generally believe that "although the central real estate regulation and control policy is very strict, it will not last". In 2011, the central government had a very clear understanding of the market game situation, and repeatedly stressed "unswervingly adhere to the real estate regulation" and "let the house price return to a reasonable price". After more than a year of market game, house prices began to loosen up in the third quarter of 2011. Now it is the time to consolidate the effect of real estate regulation. If the real estate regulation policy is relaxed, the policy authority of the central government will be challenged again, and it will be difficult to carry out real estate regulation in the future

at the beginning of 2012, many local governments began to try to relax real estate regulation and make "small moves". The central government stopped these practices in time and stabilized market expectations. However, since the second quarter, local "small moves" have begun to be introduced frequently. The central government should respond to this as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will seriously interfere with market expectations

the bottom line that cannot be broken by the real estate regulation policy is the "purchase restriction policy". The author has called for China to implement the "one household, one room" system since 2005, when the two beams are supported on the base by four columns. This is mainly based on two reasons: first, China's per capita land is limited, and second, the income distribution is seriously unfair. When wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people, if their behavior is not properly restricted, a deformed social structure will be formed: a few people exploit the majority by renting houses, and most young people will become house slaves. The experience of real estate regulation and control since 2005 shows that the most effective policy is to restrict the purchase of housing for the rich. It is a policy choice in line with China's national conditions and should become the policy bottom line that China must adhere to at present (and even for a long time in the future) in real estate regulation and control

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